We're on to the American League West in our 2022 MLB standings predictions. Are the Blue Jays even with the Yankees, or way behind? Factoring in that advantage along with an electrifying Cardinals bullpen, elite defense and a sufficient lineup, we expect St. Louis in a Wild Card Game. Milwaukee had a relatively quiet offseason after finishing seven games behind St. Louis last season, but PECOTA projects the team's vaunted pitching staff to allow . This section is showing information that is up to date as of the end of the 2022 MLB season. 2022 Year to Date: 2023 Projected Rest of Season: 2023 Projected Full Season: Team G W L W% RDif RS/G RA/G G W L W% RDif RS/G Even after Gausman walked in free agency, San Francisco still returns Logan Webb, who is coming off a fantastic postseason, and bring back Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood. The speedy outfield of Tyler O'Neill, Harrison Bader and Dylan Carlson returns as the best defensive unit in baseball, and they're each expected to improve offensively. To join our email list and get notified when we launch the 2023 MLB section, register for a free account . Instead, they missed the playoffs. How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. The NL Central has not had a team repeat as division winner since the Cubs repeated in first place in 2016 and 2017. Design and development by Jay Boice. I like mid-90s for Blue Jays wins in 2022, and that gets us home here. But there was actually a lot that went wrong with the Padres' pitching staff last season and they were still 67-49 through Aug. 10, a pace of 94 wins, before melting down the rest of the way. First off, the Dodgers are the best team. After reaching the playoffs in 2020 and winning the AL Central with a 93-69 record the following year, the White Sox seemed poised to establish themselves as the divisions alpha dog in 2022. MLB.com. The Mariners, as currently constructed, are going to be a better, more well-rounded baseball team in 2022 than they were in 2021. Printed from TeamRankings.com - 2005-2023 Team Rankings, LLC. The rotation is strong, especially after signing Carlos Rodn. Pair that with the injury concerns we have for multiple starters, its enough to put this team a tier behind the Blue Jays. Los Angeles Dodgers: +600. The reason for the model's lack of trust in them in 2022? Tyler Stephenson finishes with 20+ home runs, 80+ runs, and 80+ RBIs. The rest of the AL Central is largely thinking about the future. AL Central predictions. The Guardians did virtually nothing this winter, yet it wouldn't be shocking to see them finish second or third. The increase in the number of teams losing on purpose has left a lot more wins for the good teams to grab. I'm counting on a huge year from Matt Chapman (as outlined in the preview) while the rotation has a full year of Jos Berros, a full year of Alek Manoah and newly-signed Kevin Gausman coming. Fun fact: He finished the 2016, 2018, 2019 and 2021 seasons with a combined batting average in the .290s, so maybe it wasn't surprising that he finished his first MLB season 91 games for the . For anyone followingthe Reds, this has been a puzzling offseason. But much of the rest of the lineup is unproven. Instead, their big additions were Mitch Haniger, Michael Conforto, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling and Taylor Rogers. If Jack Flaherty is unavailable for a majority of the season, though, that significantly changes the Cardinals outcome. section: | slug: mlb-win-totals-each-teams-2022-projection-plus-best-bets-on-over-unders-for-dodgers-cardinals-more | sport: baseball | route: article_single.us | The Angels are playoff contenders and the Rangers aren't. Should-be ace Jack Flaherty has a shoulder injury. It isn't that simple, even if it sounds like it should be. Tampa Bay Rays 400. But that quickly changed, and the result was a disappointing 77-85 season. 1. . 2 starter acquired before being more optimistic with our MLB predictions. Copyright 2023 Sporting News Holdings Limited. The Padres are absolutely a fringe playoff contender in the NL, but I'm not seeing them on the cusp of 90 wins. The Cherries are 19th in the standings with 21 points but trail Leeds United by one for 17th place. Last Year's Record: 91-71 Over/Under: 92.5 The Blue Jays were just one game shy of making the postseason last year in a division that featured four teams winning more than 90 games. It might not matter right now, but it will cost them multiple games and potentially a playoff spot. I like the Dodgers to keep MLB's 100 . How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. The White Sox and Astros were picked to reach the top two spots in the American League more than any other team, while the top four AL East teams were the most likely in the simulations to also reach the playoffs. Max Scherzer and Justin . The defense is terrible. Joey Votto has never hit 40 homers in a season. NL Playoffs: Wild-Card Series A: Mets over Brewers Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted No one saw the San Francisco Giants being that good last season, they surpassed their wildest expectations. Derek Jeter left the Miami Marlins for a reason, he doesnt believe this team is all-in on winnings. While Cleveland missed the playoffs last year, they also have finished no lower than third in the AL Central since 2012. The Phillies Will Need The Long Ball For A Long Shot World Series Comeback . But what the model really likes is the rotation. Here are 10 predictions that go against general public sentiment, but I still think have a decent shot at happening. The top of the MLB power rankings remains steady and it's likely to stay that way. It's a win-win, really. Edward Sutelan is a content producer at The Sporting News. RHP Max Scherzer inked a super lucrative three-year deal with the New York Mets, paying him an average salary of $43.3 million. I just feel like they'll need a miracle this season. Some major changes await the 2022 MLB season. But after an offseason spent filling out their roster with solid role players, ZiPS and PECOTA both think they have a good chance to break their ignominious drought in 2023. The Tigersare in a position where it feels like they are on the verge of putting it all together at the big-league level. Seattle strengthened its young core of Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez by trading for Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez from Cincinnati and signing reigning Cy Young winner Robbie Ray. ET (ESPN). PECOTA, however, sees a sizable gap of roughly five games between them, with the Mets on top. Pitching depth will be crucial because of the compressed training period before the regular season starts. The Blue Jays will, once again, be one of the best fourth-place finishers since MLB went to the six-division format in 1994. EX. Wed be even higher on this team because of its exciting rotation, if not for the fact Phillys defense is the worst in baseball. Jonathan India and Tyler Stephenson shined in their rookie seasons, and are expected to continue to improve, and a healthy Nick Senzel could help him live up to his top prospect billing. Bob Melvin is the perfect skipper for the clubhouse, providing both strong in-game management and a leader who can help keep a lot of personalities in sync. The influx of multiple 100-win teams per season these last handful of years isn't a coincidence, in my view. Joey Votto continues to produce at a star talent, but heading into his age 38 campaign, the model expects some regression to take a toll. 15 seasons. With the money saved by choosing Olson over Freddie Freeman, Atlanta signed Kenley Jansen and Collin McHugh. The pitching staff is worrisome. When the MLB playoffs begin, well provide predictions, matchup analysis and provide the full schedule for October baseball. Ultimately, this is a total rebuild and the organization isn't thinking about the final MLB standings in 2022. Can the Los Angeles Angels avoid bad fortune? As for Oakland, it already traded Chris Bassitt, Matt Olson and Matt Chapman. Our MLB projections will impact our projected postseason bracket. NHL 2022-23 Stanley Cup playoff chances and projected standings. We like the Zack Greinke return and have optimism for the Royals future, but 2022 wont be great. Calling up Gabriel Arias could help with that. The model does not expect the Brewers will emerge back on top in 2022. Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off Trevor Rogers nearly won Rookie of the Year, and Sandy Alcantara and Pablo Lopez each had ERAs south of 3.20. The bottom line is the recent history of teams that ducked and dodged their way past unseemly run differentials to post winning records isn't rosy in the ensuing season. The rotation remains the bright spot with Shane Bieber leading a staff that featured a breakout season from Cal Quantrill and solid campaigns from Triston McKenzie, Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale. Signing Seiya Suzuki, one of Japan's biggest sluggers over the past six seasons, is a big addition as he'll likely slot right into the middle of the lineup. The winter meetings are quickly approaching and before you know it will be time for Spring Training. AL East This is undoubtedly the toughest division in baseball. But in this new season, expectations are once again high for them. Jarred Kelenic still needs to make a lot of strides. Torontos moves this offseason inspire confidence Canada might host a World Series game. TeamRankings.com is not affiliated with the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) or March Madness Athletic Association, neither of which has supplied, reviewed, approved or endorsed the material on this site. MORE:Reds, As top list of five MLB fan bases experiencing post-lockout blues. Paired with the expanded 12-team playoff field and the opportunities afforded by the universal designated hitter, more clubs were active in March than expected, setting up some interesting postseason races for the new season. With the exception of a 107-win season from the Giants in 2021, the Dodgers have owned the NL West for the past decade. 3. The results, Marcus Stroman being replaced by Max Scherzer and holes in the lineup being filled by Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar. 3. The rotation has the biggest question marks, but the signing of Zack Greinke to go along with Brady Singer, Brad Keller and Carlos Hernandez should be able to give the team quality innings. From back-to-back division champions to the cellar, the Twins'tumble in 2021 came as a shock after looking like a dominant team in each of the prior two years. Vlad Guerrero Jr. ties Joe DiMaggio for the 2nd-most HR . The loss of Gray takes away one arm that found success pitching in Colorado, but German Marquez and Antonio Senzatela continued to prove last season that they've figured it out. The front end of the rotation offers some star arms in Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Sale and Tanner Houck, who can match up with many of the best in the AL. With Sean Manaea also gone, its even easier to predict fewer wins. NEW YORK YANKEES 103-59. Mookie Betts felt quiet in 2021, but he's still one of baseball's best at the dish. MLB predictions for the AL East are the most fun, theyll even vary on a weekly basis. With Freddie Freeman joining the mix, the Dodgers are undoubtedly the best team in MLB. Now in the new year, they'll have a target on their backs as several teams loaded up this offseason with the goal of avoiding a repeat champion. It also highlights the risk of a starting rotation with so many durability worries. The White Sox, who play in one of the weaker divisions, are the favorite to come away with the No. ZiPS has it as a much closer race, projecting the Yankees for 89 wins and the Blue Jays for 88. The versatile Max Muncy will hit anywhere he's playing, and Justin Turner has shown no signs of aging as he heads into his age 36 season. Losing Kevin Gausman (Toronto Blue Jays and Buster Posey (retirement) are two huge blows, leaving voids that cant be filled directly. Major League Baseball's arduous 2021-22 offseason featured a 99-day lockout that . The team will also get another look at breakout star Jazz Chisholm in his second year of action. MORE:Trading for Matt Chapman a better fit for rising Blue Jays than signing Freddie Freeman. There wasn't a better trio of starting pitchers in baseball last year than those onthe Brewers. Behind the Jays, it could go either way between the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays. Acquiring Sonny Gray improves the rotation, but it could still use a front-line starter. As for the Cubs, neither system likes their postseason chances despite the signings of Swanson, Cody Bellinger, Jameson Taillon, Trey Mancini and Eric Hosmer. The fourth and final 2022-23 regular-season meeting in the Battle of Florida is set for Tuesday as the Florida Panthers head to Tampa to take on the Lightning and their No.1 home offense. The breakout season by the Giants mixed up the run of Dodgers' dominance, but the model expects Los Angeles to reclaim its crown in 2022. Minnesota traded Josh Donaldson and others to free up room to sign prized free-agent shortstop Carlos Correa. The Blue Jays have constructed one of the most talented rosters in the AL, combining impressive young players such as Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Alejandro Kirk and Alek Manoah with veteran stars such as George Springer, Kevin Gausman and Matt Chapman, but the club has yet to break through as an AL powerhouse. They'll be one of the best home teams in baseball this year. It has been a discouraging offseason forAthletics'fans, who watched their two core Matts traded off to the Blue Jays (Chapman) and Braves (Olson), and standout arms Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt traded to the Padres and Mets, respectively. Look, I know they do some sort of sorcery there, but the pitching depth is depleted and that's a rough division. I'm going to, once again, hammer the over on the highest total. Ultimately, this is a total rebuild and the organization isnt thinking about the final MLB standings in 2022. They have the best hitter of this generation in Mike Trout and the most talented player of all time in Shohei Ohtani, yet they continue to finish below .500. MLB is back, but will fans be after ugly offseason? Justin Verlander's return is hugefor the Astros, coming off their third World Series appearance in five years. They'll hover around .500 without the season-altering winning streak this time around. 1. They also signed Jon Gray, who could be due for a breakout season now that he's no longer pitching in Coors Field. PECOTA projects both the Twins and Guardians for 88 wins, with the White Sox at 78. The Marinerswere the feel-good story of 2021, when out of nowhere, they rose up to post a 90-win season and nearly reach the postseason. Unfortunately, the Jacob deGrom injury is a massive blow. The only six teams with greater than a 5 percent chance of reaching the World Series are the four leaders in the AL East and the White Sox and Astros. November 17, 2021 Mitch Hill MLB. PECOTA has the Halos four games ahead of the Mariners and gives them a 54.9% chance of reaching the postseason, the seventh-highest odds in the AL. Marcus Semien might have left in free agency, but Toronto acquired Matt Chapman to man third and give the team a star defender to the left of Bichette. Ronald Acuna Jr. will be back before too long and joins a lineup that still features Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson and Eddie Rosario. Everyone wants to see his light-tower power in the thin air of Coors Field, just as CJ Cron in his first year in Colorado. A young Tigers team will take another step forward . By Dom Luszczyszyn. You can do it! Losing Robbie Ray and Steven Matz will hurt the rotation, but the addition of Kevin Gausman and Yusei Kikuchi, along with a full season of Jose Berrios and Alek Manoah will help bolster the pitching staff. The model isn't too favorable on them jumping right back into contention in 2022. It's been more than a decade since the Phillies made the playoffs but with Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber on board, this may be the best all-around team they've put together in recent years Credit to the Marlins for spending some money on Avisail Garcia ($53 million) and Jorge Soler ($36 million). This team is largely the same one that went on a 17-game winning streak at the end of the season to blaze past the Reds, Phillies and Padres to capture the second wild-card and sneak into the playoffs. The Los Angeles Dodgers might have lost the NL West in 2021, but theres no doubt this is the best team in the division entering the 2022 season. Projection rollouts have become a time-honored tradition in the lead up to every baseball season, and FanGraphs writer Dan Szymborskis ZiPS and Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA are two of the most trusted projection systems around. Standings. As for Colorado, signing Kris Bryant feels like a move for ticket sales as this is still one of the worst teams in MLB. I don't think they are bottom-feeder level (Orioles, Pirates, Diamondbacks), though. This doesn't necessarily mean they'll win the World Series and a surprisingly disappointing season is always possible. Were seeing the Texas Rangers and Oakland Athletics head in opposite directions. Alek Thomas should make his debut at some point in 2022 to join fellow young bats like Ketel Marte, Daulton Varsho and Carson Kelly. The 2020 World Series champions have +600 odds to lift the Commissioner's Trophy in 2022, while the Pirates, Orioles and Arizona Diamondbacks are tied for the lowest at +25000. Download data. Kyle Tucker will now be seen as one of the offensive leaders, along with slugger Yordan Alvarez. The model really likes the rotation with Steven Matz joining Adam Wainwright and Jack Flaherty, who could miss some time with a shoulder injury. However, the starting rotation just doesnt seem good enough in a long season. The reigning World Series winners emerge as the favorites to win their division, with New York and Philadelphia appearing as strong contenders for wild cards. Find the best projected stats of the 2023 MLB season and build the best Fantasy Baseball team. Zac Gallen and Luke Weaver look like they could front Arizona's rotation at some point, but for now, those two spots belong to the more experienced Merrill Kelly and Madison Bumgarner. But this will be a season for fans to count on young talent gaining experience to help the next reloaded Oakland team. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Despite employing Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, the Halos missed the playoffs for the eighth straight season in 2022. Before long, Hayes will soon be joined on the left side of the infield by towering shortstop Oneil Cruz. Robbie Ray, the AL Cy Young winner, is also gone. Each game is then simulated 20,000 times with park factors included in each matchup. The Mariners may have somethingto say about that, though, making some big moves in hopes of ending baseball's longest postseason drought dating back to 2001. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Here are the way too early MLB 2022 standings predictions for the American League. And with Michael Kopech and Liam Hendriks at the backend of the bullpen, they could be a real weapon to end games in the playoffs. The results of each simulation are tallied together to create the most likely outcomes of the divisions, playoffs and World Series. With the last few days of build up comes all kinds of predictions, picks, best bets and the like. The 2022 Major League Baseball season is nearly upon us. But just who will it be that claims the Commissioner's Trophy at the end of the year? By no means do I think the Rockies are good, nor will they come close to playoff contention. All rights reserved. If it's the 2022-23 Premier League table you're after, you've come to the right place. The Post's Joel Sherman predicts the AL Central: 1. MLB Spring Training Standings 2023. After signing Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray for a combined $556 million in 2021, the Rangers inked Jacob deGrom, Andrew Heaney, Nathan Eovaldi and Martn Prez and traded for Jake Odorizzi this offseason. If there werent enough concerns, early IL stints for Evan Longoria and Lamonte Wade Jr. heighten worries with the Giants lineup and its diminishing depthj. 6-keys: media/spln/mlb/reg/free/stories, at We're using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. Major League Leaders . March 4, 2023 7:30 am EDT. The Rays have won the division two years in a rowbut didn't do much to upgrade,and have a lot riding on Wander Franco (and his new 11-year, $182 million contract)taking a significant step forward Yankees fans may have hated the offseason, but the team didn't get significantly worse over the winter. The Red Soxsurprised some people with their run to the ALCS in 2021, and Boston expects to be back in the mix for the playoffs again in 2022. Because of a below-average lineup, on its best days, the Marlins exciting rotation will be wasted. Adley Rutschman and Grayson Rodriguez aren't far away from reaching the majors, and bats like Cedric Mullins, Trey Mancini and Ryan Mountcastle have already proven they can mash in the big leagues. March 30, 2022. And I'd win the under. Despite believing that the Astros are more likely to win the pennant, it sees the Rays as a slightly more likely team to win the World Series. The offense added Starling Marte and Mark Canha to a lineup that was already strong with Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil and Pete Alonso in the infield and Brandon Nimmo in the outfield. Starting with the winners, there won't be many who will dispute that the White Sox should be the favorite to win the division. There were three last season. Pair that with a strong bullpen and a productive lineup. Losing Carlos Correa hurts, its why were not projecting the Astros to win the AL pennant, but theres a real gap between Houston and its competition in the division. The model indicates that in a World Series against the NL, which is loaded with teams that boast top-line pitching staffs, Tampa Bay's staff is more likely to hold up in a series. Bostons bullpen isnt among the best in the American League and its starting rotation lacks quality depth, especially with Chris Sale on IL. Needless to say, our MLB predictions arent quite as high on the Boston Red Sox. The Guardiansfeel like the biggest surprise in the division. With just days to go until Opening Day, hope is high among all teams that this will be their year to win a World Series or at least have an enjoyable 162-game season. Arizona also has to be relieved the DH is now in the league so it can give young slugger Seth Beer a way to consistently fit in the lineup. Find the Pistons vs Cavaliers odds below. This is an admittedly risky venture. All Rights Reserved. They still have Juan Soto, who continues to receive Ted Williams' comparisons, but the rest of the team is a bit unknown. Instead, the model likes the chances ofthe Cardinalsto win the NL Central. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver. Now, did that stop us from asking a number of MLB . ZiPS projects the White Sox for 74 wins, closer to the Tigers (71) and Royals (70) than the Guardians (83) and Twins (80). Way-Too-Early 2022 MLB Predictions. It's a good, though not great, mix of position players. The problem is so often health, and that is the concern the model has for the Angels. 5 min read. After adding closer Craig Kimbrel, the gap between Los Angeles and its NL West foes is even wider. ZiPS projects both the Mariners and Angels for 85 wins, putting the two clubs in a tie for the third AL Wild Card spot behind the Blue Jays and Rays. Even worse, Lance Lynn is now sidelined until June. 7. The model isn't as bullish on San Diego as others due to concerns over Tatis' ability to play a full season and the depth in the lineup, but it's easy to see this being the magical year for which many have been waiting. LAA Los Angeles Angels. TheBrewers Way? The NL Central is mediocre, at best, and the Cardinals are a part of the mediocrity. Our 2022 MLB predictions panel. They'll have thump. Heading into 2022, this division figures to be just as thrilling as the Padres continue to establish themselves as a threat in the league. Nov. 4, 2022. USA TODAY. October 6th, 2022. The injury to Jacob deGrom is a major blow to the Mets' chances of winning the division, but if he's healthy once he comes back from his shoulder injury, New York would look like one of the best teams in the NL. Offensively, there is room for improvement on this team in 2022. Cleveland might be trending the wrong direction compared to most teams, but finishing last still feels like a bit of a stretch. The East looks like a potential power in the National League, as well as the American League. Landing Carlos Correa is a monumental upgrade at shortstop, improving this teams fielding and run production. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB. . MLB insider Bob Nightengale examines if the fans will forgive league for ugly offseason. Top 2023 Gotham Stakes predictions One shocker: Demling is high on Lugan Knight, who is tied for third in the odds, at 6-1. They battled through adversity and were able to outlast the Houston Astros en route to a world series trophy. The rotation lost Robbie Ray but added Kevin Gausman and Yusei Kikuchi. It's hard to see that changing in 2022 with a new crop of players in the AL Central. Now, the Red Sox also have Trevor Story, who should certainly enjoy teeing off the Green Monster. Only enabled for screen sizes > 1024px. Bookmark this page for in-season updates to our MLB predictions. I think Randal Grichuk will post huge power numbers there, too. The Yankees, Red Sox and Rays are all strong playoff contenders, for me. 2023 Projected Standings. They also made big splashes by signing Rodon, Alex Cobb and Matthew Boyd, who will only make this rotation stronger. Chicago still finishes atop the AL Central in our MLB predictions, but the separation is decreasing. (Get latest betting odds) Manchester City and Newcastle United face . At least they have one of the best MLB lineups. FIVE BIG QUESTIONS:AL East | AL Central | AL WestNL East | NL Central | NL West. Although Jos Abreu left as a free agent to sign with the Astros in the offseason, the core of the roster that won the division title two years ago is still largely intact, making Chicago an obvious rebound candidate in 2023.